CBN targets single-digit inflation, exchange rate stability in 2026 policy agenda

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has unveiled its 2026 monetary policy agenda, outlining plans to reduce inflation to single digits, stabilise the exchange rate, and strengthen the country’s financial system.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the apex bank, announced the roadmap on Thursday in Abuja at the 2026 first monetary policy forum.

Cardoso said the monetary policy committee (MPC) will focus on consolidating recent economic gains by sustaining the decline in inflation, maintaining exchange rate stability, and improving liquidity flows within the banking system.

“Our next phase is focused on consolidation: anchoring inflation firmly on a downward trajectory toward a single-digit level, sustaining exchange-rate stability, strengthening reserve buffers through organic inflows, deepening interbank market development, and enhancing the robustness of our monetary-policy transmission,” he said.

The CBN governor noted that achieving the objectives would depend on strong collaboration between the central bank and fiscal authorities, alongside disciplined policy implementation and stakeholder engagement.

“Achieving these goals requires continued collaboration with the fiscal authority, disciplined policy execution, and strong stakeholder engagement, which is the very essence of today’s Forum,” Cardoso added.

He said the outlook for the Nigerian economy remains cautiously optimistic, despite persistent domestic and global risks.

The apex bank chief projected global economic growth at 3.3 percent in 2026, warning that tight financial conditions, the lingering effects of past monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions could weigh on the outlook.

Cardoso also flagged developments in the Middle East as a potential risk to Nigeria’s economy, particularly through their impact on oil prices.

On the domestic front, he projected economic growth at 4.49 percent, driven by consistent policy direction, a market-reflective foreign exchange system, improved oil production, and ongoing structural reforms.

However, he identified food supply constraints, infrastructural deficits, and election-related spending pressures as key downside risks.

“Notwithstanding these challenges, our strengthened macroeconomic fundamentals, improved fiscal-monetary coordination, credible policy frameworks, and sound early warning systems position Nigeria to mitigate these risks more effectively than in the past,” he said.

FG TARGETS 7% GDP GROWTH

In his goodwill message, Wale Edun, minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, said the federal government is targeting stronger growth capable of improving living standards.

“Our broader objective remains economic transformation. In the near term, we are targeting GDP growth of about 7 percent, roughly double the pace of inflation. Growth at that level would be strong enough to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty,” Edun said.

He said managing the trade-off between inflation and growth would remain a central challenge for policymakers.

“The relationship between growth and inflation will remain a key focus going forward. The challenge is to strike the right balance, keeping inflation under control while sustaining growth,” he said.

Edun added that interest rates remain a critical tool in controlling inflation, noting that tighter rates raise borrowing costs for government, businesses, and households.

He, however, expressed optimism that interest rate could ease gradually as inflation declines and reforms take hold.

The minister also emphasised the need for coordinated action across institutions, noting that macroeconomic stability cannot be delivered by any single agency.

Edun also welcomed ongoing efforts to improve transparency in the foreign exchange market, saying such measures would boost investor confidence, reduce uncertainty, and support disinflation.

He further commended the CBN’s move toward an inflation-targeting framework, describing it as a step that would strengthen policy credibility, enhance communication, and support long-term investment.

Also speaking, Mohammed Sani Abdullahi, deputy governor in charge of the economic policy directorate at the CBN, said Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment has improved since the last monetary policy forum held in January 2025.

Abdullahi said inflation has moderated, foreign exchange market conditions have improved, and investor confidence has strengthened, supported by better coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities.

“Despite these encouraging developments, we recognise that the journey towards sustainable macroeconomic stability is an ongoing process rather than a destination,” he said.

Abdullahi called for sustained reforms, stronger policy coordination, and deeper engagement among stakeholders, stressing that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on collective action across the econom